Why did experts fail to predict revolution in Kiev?

“I think that revolutions are always unexpected. They must be unexpected and most analysts and experts cannot predict anything,” political scientist Andrei Kazakevich said.

If Yanukovich had known the result of the confrontation, he would have prepared for the worse and would not have allowed the change of power, he added.

Nobody expected Maidan’s tragic outcome and President Yanukovich’s escape. Experts only spoke about the situation going out of control. Belarusian analyst Dzyanis Melyantsou told Radio Liberty at the end of January:

“The procrastination will either lessen Maidan’s enthusiasm or radicals who do not trust the opposition and do not coordinate their actions with opposition leaders will start acting. The situation is likely to go out of control.”

Ukrainian political scientists did not expect the quick change of power either. Head of the Applied Political Research Centre Vladimir Fesenko said that Maidan would last for a long time – until the presidential election.

“The political crisis will last until the presidential election in any case. Maidan may not be preserved the way it is now in the centre of Kiev. However, the political tension that appeared in December will stay until the presidential election. Anyway, the conflict will be renewed during the presidential election campaign.”

Andrei Kazakevich was also cautions in his forecasts of the development of the situation in Ukraine at the beginning of January. He even said that Maidan would not change anything in the near future.

“I do not think we can expect serious results now. We will probably see the opposition mobilize as they have a serious rival now. The next election will be used to win power in Ukraine.”

It was impossible to predict the radicalization of protesters and the situation in Ukraine, the political scientist says now.

“I do not think that anyone could assess the protest energy in the society. Analysts did not assess the protests in such a critical way. Nobody thought that people would be so radical and hateful.”

The next presidential election will be held in Ukraine on May 25. Hardly anyone can predict the election result now.