Russian expert: Kremlin eyes Lukashenka’s successors

“When an ambassador announces something like that it usually means that he expresses his country’s position. There can be no personal opinions unless the ambassador exceeds the limits of his competence,” Belarusian political scientist Andrei Yahorau told Euroradio.

Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov gave a press conference in Minsk on December 17. He described the success and problems in Minsk-Moscow relations, expressed a hope for integration and dropped a curtsey for the Belarusian authorities.  However, commenting on the Kremlin’s position as regards the future presidential elections, he said:

“Although I am the Ambassador, as a Russian citizen, I wish Alyaksandr Ryhoravich success at the elections. The absence of turbulence in the country depends on it.”

Then he added: “If he runs for President. I somewhat doubt it…” Lukashenka has not announced whether he is going to take part in the election campaign yet.

It is a signal, Andrei Yahorau thinks:

“I think that Russia has sent a signal for Lukashenka. If he behaves, Russia will agree and be ready to support him. However, the remark about Lukashenka’s desire to run for President means that there are problems in relations with Russia.”

Political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev has lived in Moscow for 10 years. He has studied the mood of Russian higher officials very well. Surikov’s statement is understandable, he said. Five terms on end is too much even for the Kremlin:

“The fifth term sounds incredible even for the Russian left. That is why Surikov, as a Russian, expressed the opinion. It is too much.”

The Kremlin has already prepared its own scenario for the Belarusian election campaign of 2015, Andrei Suzdaltsev thinks. But it does not mean that Moscow is ready to support only Lukashenka. Moscow analysts must consider other candidates anyway in order to have other variants just in case, Suzdaltsev believes. Authoritarian regimes tend to disappear all of a sudden and such variants are really necessary.

“There are people responsible for Belarus in the Russian President’s Administration. Naturally, they have a deck of possible candidates. Otherwise, these people would be fired. Anything can happen. A person may die of a heart attack or stumble. It may happen at any moment,” the political scientist said.

One can only guess what names are in the Kremlin’s deck. The Russian Ambassador has been meeting oppositionists a lot and said that they ‘had no programme, could not unite and were not serious’.

Photo: ITAR-TASS.