IMF wants to know if Minsk ready for reforms
The Belarusian authorities are waiting for the IMF loan of $3 billion. But the question arises: what does the IMF demand from the Belarusian authorities for this money, what changes and reforms? Economist Siarhei Chaly claims there were no new requirements from the IMF this time.
"They have in previous years discussed what kind of reforms should be implemented. All they are interested in (IMF experts - Euroradio) is the position set out by the Belarusian side, a protocol of intent signed by Lukashenka as to whether we need reforms, and what those will be. All are concerned now about the main political line: so that all would agree on the same version," said Chaly.
The IMF experts today are also interested in one thing -- a single position set out by the Belarusian side, a protocol of intent signed by Lukashenka as to whether we need reforms and what those should be.
According to the economist, one thing the IMF experts are interested in is what we are planning to do with our economy: "to create a new economic model or try to revive the old one." But what did we hear on November 17 from Aliaksandr Lukashenka during his meeting with the head of the IMF mission to Belarus Peter Dolman?
He says that, whether the IMF likes it or not, the Belarusian authorities will not "break the welfare state that we have developed," and that Belarus is ready to implement the proposals of the IMF as soon as possible, but probably not in period the experts have suggested. "The only issue is time," stressed the head of Belarus.
But are "the scheme of the social state and the timing" the matter? As you know, the IMF expects from our country structural economic reforms.
Without government subsidies, public utilities for one-bedroom apartment for Belarusians will cost about $50 and for a two-room - $100, and so on. Obviously, the Belarusian authorities will not do it.
"The refusal of excessive socialization: of industry subsidies, cheap loans for large loss-making enterprises, said the economist Leanid Zaika. Next thing needed is the removal of subsidies from the budget and public utilities, health care system. Next - the development of private initiative, reforms in favor of business development. As for privatization, they no longer mention it."
By the way, according to estimates by Leanid Zaika, without government subsidies public utilities for one-bedroom apartment will be about $50, for a two-room - $ 100, and so on. Obviously, concludes economist, the Belarusian authorities will not do it. They will also not give up free medical care, education, or public transport subsidies. Otherwise, he says, the people will decide they do not want this kind of authorities.
"What he said today is the repetition of his inaugural address, says Siarhei Chaly. There he said " do you want to break all the good things we had, so that we had to pay full cost of healthcare, education, housing and transport?" If you want people to pay more, then of course we can do it ... but how does this relate to the reforms? The main question is the restructuring of the inefficient state enterprises. Why does the public have to pay more for the services?"
But the authorities are not going to do anything with the loss-making enterprises and even more so with subsidies for public utilities and other things, said the interviewees of Euroradio. Same is true about reforms to the benefit of business circles. More precisely: our officials will sincerely promise that they will do everything necessary in this regard in due course, and IMF officials will pretend to trust Belarusians on that and will give us the money. At the same time, said Zaika, it would be not an economic, but a political decision, "Just for the fact that Lukashenka allegedly does not entirely supports Putin."
Photo: Zmitser Lukashuk, naviny.by
