Russian economic crisis is good for Belarus
Russia is on the edge of an economic crisis comparable to the crisis of 1998. Analysts from Financial Times think so. Foreign experts registered a flow-out of 20 billion dollars of investments over the past month. A scientific adviser of the Higher School of Economy, a Russian economist Evgenii Yasin thinks that the main reason for the political crisis is the Russian policy and that the neighbour’s situation may be advantageous for Belarus.
Evgenii Yasin (E.Y.): First, it can be explained by the fact that the situation in all international markets is complicated now. Investors having difficulties in their own countries usually withdraw their money from developing markets in such cases. Second, the policy of the Russian government has been rather aggressive to business including foreign business since recently. Third, the events in the Caucuses also influence it. Markets feel it and react to it.
ERB: What can Russia do to change this economic situation? Does it have to do anything? Is the crisis dangerous for it?
E.Y.: I think it is dangerous. The crisis will not be dramatic because Russia has a good safety pillow of reserves, the reserve fund and the fund of national welfare. However, it is rather dangerous for innovation economy if you take the medium-term and long-term prospects into account. Russian innovative economy cannot develop being isolated from the rest of the world. So it turns out that dramatic changes in the Russian politics should be perceptible.
ERB: What if Russia changed the policy of energy supplies in some way to bring back Western investments? Wouldn’t it help?
E.Y.: How can it do it? Russia cannot increase energy supplies because it is already a maximum. Lowering the prices would mean losing face. All relations are established and the only thing Russia can do is fulfill its commitments to avoid further losses.
ERB: How do you think, will the Russian crisis affect such Russia’s partners as Belarus?
E.Y.: It may be an advantage for Belarus because it would strengthen its position in the Russian market. However, I think that your administration is looking in the western direction because it understands the danger of the situation and does not want to be dependent only on Russia although it assures Russia in its good attitude to it.
Evgenii Yasin (E.Y.): First, it can be explained by the fact that the situation in all international markets is complicated now. Investors having difficulties in their own countries usually withdraw their money from developing markets in such cases. Second, the policy of the Russian government has been rather aggressive to business including foreign business since recently. Third, the events in the Caucuses also influence it. Markets feel it and react to it.
ERB: What can Russia do to change this economic situation? Does it have to do anything? Is the crisis dangerous for it?
E.Y.: I think it is dangerous. The crisis will not be dramatic because Russia has a good safety pillow of reserves, the reserve fund and the fund of national welfare. However, it is rather dangerous for innovation economy if you take the medium-term and long-term prospects into account. Russian innovative economy cannot develop being isolated from the rest of the world. So it turns out that dramatic changes in the Russian politics should be perceptible.
ERB: What if Russia changed the policy of energy supplies in some way to bring back Western investments? Wouldn’t it help?
E.Y.: How can it do it? Russia cannot increase energy supplies because it is already a maximum. Lowering the prices would mean losing face. All relations are established and the only thing Russia can do is fulfill its commitments to avoid further losses.
ERB: How do you think, will the Russian crisis affect such Russia’s partners as Belarus?
E.Y.: It may be an advantage for Belarus because it would strengthen its position in the Russian market. However, I think that your administration is looking in the western direction because it understands the danger of the situation and does not want to be dependent only on Russia although it assures Russia in its good attitude to it.
