3,3% vs 33,4%: Verifying crime statistics in Belarus

August 2016, the head of state is receiving Prosecutor General Alexander Konyuk with a report. The top-ranking prosecutor points to a drop in the number of murders:

“The crime situation has remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous year. However, as a positive thing, we are recording less murders."

Let's keep it in mind….

3 February 2017. The Office of Prosecutor General is analyzing the results of 2016. Prosecutor General: "... the number of murders grew 3.3%."

Thus, there was a drop in the number of murders in August but eventually increased after the year ended.

The statistics on the Interior Ministry's website confirms the number: "there were 437 cases of murdered and attempted murders in 2016". This is 24 murders more than in 2015 or 3.3% more.

Here comes the trick… According to the official bulletin for the year of 2016 from the National Statistics Committee, murders death toll totalled 395 people. In 2015, there were 296 murders. As one can see, the number of murdered people in fact grew 33.4% or 99 people! But the Office of Prosecutor General is not aware of it! It reports itself and all of us about just 3.3%.

How can it be possible? Does it mean that serial killers are out there?

The thing is that the Interior Ministry and the Office of Prosecutor General count murders along with murder attempts. However, they talked about murders only when they summarized the results of the year.

Probably, there is one thing that both the Office of Prosecutor General and the Interior do not see behind this "insignificant" 3.3%.

In 2016, there were 437 cases of murder and murder attemps and 395 victims. Efficiency is 90%.

In 2015, there were 296 deaths against 423 murders and murder attempts. Efficiency is 70%.

Can we be sure that the Office of Prosecutor General understands why the number of murdered people has grown and why the number of murder attempts has dropped? Maybe this is not a problem?

Then, let's reflect on what happened to Belarusians since 23 August when Prosecutor General reported to the president that there were less murders in this country but eventually 99 more people were killed by the end of the year. Judging by these numbers, serial killers were on their spree for four months in Belarus?