Future German chancellor unlikely to change policy towards Belarus

Even if a Social Democrat becomes Germany’s new chancellor after the general elections next year, thist will hardly influence on the state of relations between Belarus and Germany, according to political analyst Andrei Kazakevich. Anatol Sidarevich, a deputy chairman of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party goes even further by saying that Belarusian Social Democrats should expect nothing good.

Anatol Sidarevich: “I have never been an optimist regarding the German social democracy. In fact, it was even worse for Social Democrats and democracy on the whole in Belarus when German Social Democrats were in power. Just look at the behavior of Schroeder when he was the chancellor and afterwards”.

By and large, Mr. Sidarevich has a skeptical attitude towards Germany’s foreign policy.

Anatol Sidarevich: “Since Friedrich II, Germany has tried to make a deal with Russia at the cost of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and other countries and behind their backs”.

In relations with Belarus, Germany pursues exclusively pragmatic goals, according to Sidarevich.

“Over the past 17 years, Germany has attempted to get an economic space here. It has tried various methods to appease Lukashenka’s regime. One cannot call it an ideological or noble policy. The Germans expect Lukashenka to allow them to open the branches of Opel or Mercedes in respond to a certain indulgence from the European Union”.

According to Sidarevich, Belarusian Social Democrats have maintained almost no contacts with their German colleagues apart from occasional meetings.

Political commentator Andrei Kazakevich reckons that relations between Belarus and Germany will not change much even after German Social Democrats come to power next year.

Andrei Kazakevich: “I don’t think this will produce a lot of influence, because foreign policy is a more consistent thing. Yes, it is believed that Social Democrats can be softer towards the Belarusian regime than Christian Democrats. But I don’t think that the differences are significant. Moreover, the leader of Social Democrats currently holds the post of Germany’s foreign minister… That’s why I don’t think there could be a radical change in Germany’s foreign policy towards Belarus.”

Germany’s Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeyer on September 8 announced he was nominated by the German Social Democratic Party to run for the post of the chancellor during the general elections that are scheduled for the fall of 2009.