How will North Korea's recognition of L/DNR affect Belarus?
Kim Jong-un recognized the "L/DNR" / Euroradio
After the DPRK recognized the "L/DNR" Ukraine immediately broke off diplomatic relations with North Korea. Let's imagine that Lukashenka also recognized the "L/DPR." What consequences would this have for Belarus?
"The harm here is obvious," Vadzim Mazheika, a political consultant and analyst, tells Euroradio. "It could lead to further deterioration of relations with Ukraine and further delegitimization of Lukashenka, which will emphasize his status as the Kremlin's puppet. And Lukashenka cannot help thinking that the creation of puppet governments is a scenario that threatens all of Russia's neighbors.
It makes no practical sense for Belarus to recognize the "L/DNR." The harm would be disproportionately greater; we would not benefit from recognition at all. These, let's say, "formations" do not have any serious economic or political potential. There can be nothing useful for Belarus from them.
But if Belarus recognizes the "L/DNR," I do not think that this will lead to a break in diplomatic relations with Ukraine. Belarus is already "at war" with Ukraine. Despite this, relations have not been broken, and the Ukrainian ambassador Igor Kizim has not been recalled.
To all appearances, Mr. Kizim is staying in order to have an emergency backup channel of communication between Kyiv and Minsk. This may be useful during the war.
Neither North Korea nor Cuba will play a role here
How would the recognition of independence by North Korea or Cuba affect the "L/DNR"?
"Any new territory which claims the status of a state would of course, prefer the recognition by the USA or Germany," says Vadzim Mazheika. "But we have to be content with what we have. The whole civilized world does not recognize "L/DNR." Recognition by the DPRK looks somewhat anecdotal and does not bring us any closer to recognition by other countries.
In a situation where one wants at least some recognition, it is probably better to be recognized by ten marginal countries than not to be recognized by anyone. There's not much left to do: the "L/DNR" are recognized by the countries of the same level.
And since the L/DNR has no serious influence of their own and cannot push anyone to recognize them, it is evident that they are counting on Russia's support. Thus, we should expect recognition from those countries that support or may be dependent on Russia in every way.
Bonuses for Kim
Why did the DPRK suddenly assert itself and meddle in Russian-Ukrainian affairs?
"North Korea is guided in its policy by very pragmatic motives. It mostly does things that strengthen the Kim family's power and allow it to obtain some additional resources," explains Vadzim Mazheika. "I think the DPRK recognized them because Russia asked it to do so and offered it something. There are no significant costs for the DPRK. Because what could be worse than the DPRK's reputation already. There is no disadvantage here. Accordingly, whatever Russia offers in exchange, even if it is some small resources, or some easing on the border, or the ability to circumvent UN sanctions through Russia, all of this can be useful to North Korea".
Why do states seek recognition of their independence?
"There are no clear criteria for what should be recognized as a country. Even the UN does not have the ability to define what is a state and what is not. In fact, in order to distinguish a group of people who have declared their power from a real state, there is no other instrument than mutual recognition of other countries. Thus, when a group of people in any territory wants to be considered a state, they seek as many such recognitions as possible. All this in order to feel like real "adults." In order, for example, to join international organizations, to claim that their decisions have any status in the international arena," sums up the analyst.
