Lukashenka to play against Putin’s successor?
Experts think that the Belarusian President has two strategies: to change his country’s economy or to change Russian politics. What is more likely? It’s up to you to decide! In the “Review of Foreign Politics of Russian Federation” published on March 28 the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affaires announced a decision to put the economic cooperation with CIS countries (including Belarus) on a market economy basis.
“Favouritism” concerning some partners contradicts the international practice, distorts the process of their own inner development, and decreases stimuli for reorganization of the economy”, – stated Russian diplomats announcing their foreign policy principles.
They say that a document of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affaires made Lukashenka finish his 2-weeks vacation and appear in public. But the vacation is not a train of the present, thinks Alyaksandr Fyaduta.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “It is impossible to stop the train of market economy”.
A Moscow political strategist Igor Mintusov also used the train metaphor but gave it a more precise definition:
Igor Mintusov: “It is very difficult to stop the train of market economy. But the thing is you do not know where the President is going to be – whether he will be in the first car, next to the engine driver or in the dining-car, or in the trailer behind bars… it’s a kind of joke”.
According to the announcements made by Lukashenka during his last speech at Minsk Vegetable Plant, he thinks that the economic misunderstanding between Belarus and Russia can be solved without putting their relations on a market economy basis.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta thinks that Lukashenka’s hopes may be connected with the presidential election in Russia that is to take place in the spring of 2008.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “The thing is it’s not important who wins in the coming election campaign in Russia. The thing is how strong that person will be”.
If Putin’s successor wins and if he is able to continue the current political course – that will be the course Lukashenka is not satisfied with.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “I think Lukashenka would like to see a weak successor. A successor who will not try to resist him. Lukashenka is very popular with a large number of Russian electors. He is an ideological heir of the Soviet Union. He is going to fight for all these “Neo-Soviet” votes”.
Igor Mintusov thinks that the idea about Lukashenka supporting the opposition of the Kremlin in 2008 may turn out to be true. But Igor Yevgenevich assumes that there are very few opportunities for the Belarusian President in the Russian politics:
Igor Mintusov: “How can Lukashenka help any VVP’s rival? Especially taking into account that it’s another country… Probably it would be moral support. Lukashenka will root for the rival”.
Experts note it is not really important which rival will be chosen by Lukashenka. Taking into account the so-called “Neo-Soviet” platform of the Belarusian leader it may be the head of the Communist Party of Russia Gennadii Zyuganov.
Two months ago “daddy Zu” called the misunderstanding in the relations between Russia and Belarus “unacceptable” and supported the grant building of a union state with last year prices for oil and gas.
You cannot exclude the variant with Dmitry Rogozin and his new party “Great Russia” – despite of the fact that Lukashenka called his activity “eccentricity and games bringing nothing good for Belarus” at the meeting at Minsk Vegetable Plant.
It is likely that the Belarusian President may finally start reforming the post-Soviet economic system which proved to be good only when the state received financial support from Russia. By the way, Igor Mintusov thinks the variant is real.
Igor Mintusov: “Other countries’ experience (especially China) shows that there is no contradiction between market economy reforms and authoritarian political regime.
Lukashenka is clever enough to understand that he can move forward like that. Lukashenka is a professional politician so he would be changing in the way that would let him remain on the crest of the wave.
He can even transform into a liberal politician – why not? – on condition that it allows him to control the main financial aspects in the country”.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta has a more pessimistic idea. Let me finish my report with it.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “Reforming the system means getting rid of it and creating a new one. Putin destroyed the system created by Yeltsin and created his own system of administration of the country.
To reform the Belarusian system you need to destroy the system created by Lukashenka”.
“Favouritism” concerning some partners contradicts the international practice, distorts the process of their own inner development, and decreases stimuli for reorganization of the economy”, – stated Russian diplomats announcing their foreign policy principles.
They say that a document of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affaires made Lukashenka finish his 2-weeks vacation and appear in public. But the vacation is not a train of the present, thinks Alyaksandr Fyaduta.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “It is impossible to stop the train of market economy”.
A Moscow political strategist Igor Mintusov also used the train metaphor but gave it a more precise definition:
Igor Mintusov: “It is very difficult to stop the train of market economy. But the thing is you do not know where the President is going to be – whether he will be in the first car, next to the engine driver or in the dining-car, or in the trailer behind bars… it’s a kind of joke”.
According to the announcements made by Lukashenka during his last speech at Minsk Vegetable Plant, he thinks that the economic misunderstanding between Belarus and Russia can be solved without putting their relations on a market economy basis.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta thinks that Lukashenka’s hopes may be connected with the presidential election in Russia that is to take place in the spring of 2008.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “The thing is it’s not important who wins in the coming election campaign in Russia. The thing is how strong that person will be”.
If Putin’s successor wins and if he is able to continue the current political course – that will be the course Lukashenka is not satisfied with.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “I think Lukashenka would like to see a weak successor. A successor who will not try to resist him. Lukashenka is very popular with a large number of Russian electors. He is an ideological heir of the Soviet Union. He is going to fight for all these “Neo-Soviet” votes”.
Igor Mintusov thinks that the idea about Lukashenka supporting the opposition of the Kremlin in 2008 may turn out to be true. But Igor Yevgenevich assumes that there are very few opportunities for the Belarusian President in the Russian politics:
Igor Mintusov: “How can Lukashenka help any VVP’s rival? Especially taking into account that it’s another country… Probably it would be moral support. Lukashenka will root for the rival”.
Experts note it is not really important which rival will be chosen by Lukashenka. Taking into account the so-called “Neo-Soviet” platform of the Belarusian leader it may be the head of the Communist Party of Russia Gennadii Zyuganov.
Two months ago “daddy Zu” called the misunderstanding in the relations between Russia and Belarus “unacceptable” and supported the grant building of a union state with last year prices for oil and gas.
You cannot exclude the variant with Dmitry Rogozin and his new party “Great Russia” – despite of the fact that Lukashenka called his activity “eccentricity and games bringing nothing good for Belarus” at the meeting at Minsk Vegetable Plant.
It is likely that the Belarusian President may finally start reforming the post-Soviet economic system which proved to be good only when the state received financial support from Russia. By the way, Igor Mintusov thinks the variant is real.
Igor Mintusov: “Other countries’ experience (especially China) shows that there is no contradiction between market economy reforms and authoritarian political regime.
Lukashenka is clever enough to understand that he can move forward like that. Lukashenka is a professional politician so he would be changing in the way that would let him remain on the crest of the wave.
He can even transform into a liberal politician – why not? – on condition that it allows him to control the main financial aspects in the country”.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta has a more pessimistic idea. Let me finish my report with it.
Alyaksandr Fyaduta: “Reforming the system means getting rid of it and creating a new one. Putin destroyed the system created by Yeltsin and created his own system of administration of the country.
To reform the Belarusian system you need to destroy the system created by Lukashenka”.
