Belarus as a voluntary hostage of conflicts between Russia and West
On Wednesday, Poland and the US penned a deal to deploy elements of the US missile-shield on the Polish territory. Russia responded by saying this step “will not remain unpunished”. What place cane Belarus play in this response given that Lukashenka and Medvedev agreed in Sochi to create a common Belarus-Russian air defense system? What could be the consequences for Belarus? Belarus’s former defense minister Pavel Kazlouski shares his thought in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus.
ERB: Poland and the United States have signed an agreement to deploy the American anti-missiles on the Polish territory. Russia says this step “will not remain unpunished”. How can Russia punish Poland, in your opinion?
P.K: There will definitely be some steps from Russia. We have already heard about the first one. It was declared in Sochi about plans to create a common Russia-Belarus air defense system. Additionally, one can expect Russia to deploy some offensive forces here. In case of conflicts, Belarus will be exposed to the first strike if it allows some objects to be deployed on our territory. In this situation, Belarus becomes a hostage of conflicts, e.g.: between Russia and NATO or Russia and Poland or any other option. We already have two Russian military objects: Russian Navy command center in Vileika and an missile early-warning radar in Baranavichy. They are also a threat to Belarus.
ERB: Are there any agreements between Belarus and Russia to regulate the deployment of such objects?
P.K: The paragraphs that deal with the defense policy in the Union State treaty stipulate that a joint land forces grouping will be created to accommodate various troops: air defense, air force and missile forces that will be coordinated when necessary. There is no other mention in the treaty regarding the deployment of additional forces or bases in Belarus.
ERB: How it will affect the relations between Belarus and the West if we build a common air defense system with Russia? For example, what will be the consequences for our relations with Poland?
P.K: Of course, we could expect a further isolation of Belarus.
ERB: After the conflict in the South Ossetia, there is a lot of speculation going on that the sovereignty of all the former Soviet republics is under threat. Will the presence of the Russian military equipment in Belarus sharpen the threat to our sovereignty?
P.K: Yes. Lukashenka said numerously that sovereignty is a sacred thing. However, Lukashenka can often be inconsistent with his statements.
ERB: Does Belarus have a realistic chance to refuse from accommodating the Russian air defenses on our territory?
P.K: I think Belarus has little chances, because Belarus is considered as Russia’s partner by the international community. In other words: since you are Russia’s ally, you sort out your problems with Russia. There is the Constitution of Belarus which stipulates our status as a neutral nuclear-free nation. If this provision is not being met, what can we analyze here?
Photo: UCP
