Chaly:I think, Belarus asked 3-5 billion dollars from IMF
Economist Siarhej Chaly has called Belarus' appeal to IMF the best news.
However, in his opinion, our authorities should have addressed to the IMF half a year ago. The expert has noted that the conditions of Russia's help deteriorated all the time, the same is with sums of their credits. Apart from IMF, in the expert's opinion, no one has a reasonable program of reforms for the Belarusian economy.
In Chaly's opinion, Belarus has taken a political decision to refuse from the Russian credit, but to do it in such a way so that Russia would be the initiator. He says that Aliaksandr Lukashenka's recent sharp criticism of the Russian media fits this puzzle. When Russia's PM Aliaksej Kudryn stated that Russia could not provide credit, official Minsk got a "blank check".
The economist thinks that there is a possibility of Belarus' long-term cooperation with IMF - up to 3 years. And the sum of credit will be bigger - this will not be a stand-by credit for a year of a quartal. It is most likely that Belarus has asked for 3-5 billion dollars. While the Belarusian application is under consideration, official Minsk has an opportunity to fulfill what it failed to fulfill in the previous IMF's program.
Chaly thinks that Belarus may receive money from IMF closer to Autumn. Therefore, the Belarusian economy has a task to survive until then. The expert calls recent decisions of the Belarusian government a conservation of the current state. The economy can survive till Autumn in a state like this.
