Economist: Belarus' economic model is at stake
Economist Sergei Chaly reflects on the opportunities of the Belarusian economy between the EU and Russia in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus
Neither sanctions nor carrots (cheap visas and the Eastern Partnership) are helping Europe to resolve the "Belarus issue"
Sergei Chaly: “The thing is that Belarus does not depend on Europe, either. What kind of influence can they produce? The first obvious thing is to restore sanctions against Belarus officials. But they will affect 20 personalities and will not improve our general well-being.
As for the money, we expected to receive a loan of $290 million. It has been delayed not because Europe is threatening us, but because this decision should be passed by the new European Parliament. After all, what do $290 million mean? Under the current condition of the payment balance, we will have eaten it within one and a half month”.
One and a half month: is it too little? Slightly more time is remaining before the local elections and six times one and a half month before the presidential polls...
Sergei Chaly: “Who said that we are talking about enduring one night? The situation is much deeper. The fate of the whole economic model in Belarus built in the recent years is at stake".
Sergei Chaly: “All we need from Europe is to sell our petrochemical products made from the Russian oil through England and the Netherlands. Our economy used to be maintained by the difference between the prices of oil here and at the international markets”.
Europe will fail to democratize Belarus using dollars (or euros to be more exact). Actually, the problem is much deeper as Europe now has no foreign policy regarding Belarus.
Sergei Chaly: “Before the EU could impose certain conditions on countries, because there was a carrot hanging in front of the face like the membership in the European Union. Now the EU has accepted more than it can digest, so there is no such incentive.
I will stress again that the EU has no clear policy towards the countries that are not part of the EU or Russia. They do not belong to the European space neither economically, politically or culturally...
What else can they (EU) offer us? Is there is any solid program? “Eastern Partnership”... It was designed to offer at least something on the one hand and to keep us at a distance on the other hand. But this distance is reachable.
But this is not so much a serious incentive for our authorities to refrain themselves. Moreover, sanctions can be a stymulus, either. Is it for the first time?”
Judging by the statements of European officials, Europe is well aware that it cannot put pressure or demand anything from Belarus. On the other hand, the issue of Belarus has been for decades and no generation of European diplomats can resolve this issue. Sanctions or proposals are of no help. Why?
Sergei Chaly: “The EU has no own policy in general. Remember when Donald Ramsfield was asked at a news conference what his view on Europe's common position over Iraq was, he asked to give him the phone number where he can learn Europe's common position. But this is not the most important thing.
Europe's main interest is that the undisrupted supplies of gas and oil are guaranteed. But Europe makes contracts with Russia. It means that Europe buys gas in Russia, but it has to be supplied for example to the border between Ukraine and Poland. It means that as soon as the issue of transit arrises, Europe puts claims to Russia!
In this situation, there can be no own policy towards transit countries! Europe automatically give them up into the zone of Russia's influence”.
Sergei Chaly: “The most important thing is that sooner or later the logic of transit countries will prevail, because we are now tackling not only the issue of economic survival. We are kind of faced with the question to sell ourselves to who -- to the left or to the right. What about ourselves? Cant we do anything ourselves?”
In order to sell ourselves, we have to be bought by someone? Who needs us like this?
Sergei Chaly: “Firstly, apart from few companies, Russia does not need us. Moreover, Kremlin's behavior shows that there can be no allies for Russia presently. All those claims so that we should recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia... Why do they think that this recognition should have been taken place automatically?
Equally, the EU does not need us either. All they need is to decorate themselves with a medal, saying they have finally resolved the Belarus issue! The guarantees of transit are all they need. But this issue is taken care of by Russia! If Europe wants to influence on the situation in Belarus, it has to negotiate with Russia so that the latter should deal with the democratization of our country. But Russia will not be doing it!”
290 million dollars of a European loan will have been eaten within one and a half month
Neither sanctions nor carrots (cheap visas and the Eastern Partnership) are helping Europe to resolve the "Belarus issue"
Sergei Chaly: “The thing is that Belarus does not depend on Europe, either. What kind of influence can they produce? The first obvious thing is to restore sanctions against Belarus officials. But they will affect 20 personalities and will not improve our general well-being.
As for the money, we expected to receive a loan of $290 million. It has been delayed not because Europe is threatening us, but because this decision should be passed by the new European Parliament. After all, what do $290 million mean? Under the current condition of the payment balance, we will have eaten it within one and a half month”.
One and a half month: is it too little? Slightly more time is remaining before the local elections and six times one and a half month before the presidential polls...
Sergei Chaly: “Who said that we are talking about enduring one night? The situation is much deeper. The fate of the whole economic model in Belarus built in the recent years is at stake".
All we need from Europe is... transit!
Sergei Chaly: “All we need from Europe is to sell our petrochemical products made from the Russian oil through England and the Netherlands. Our economy used to be maintained by the difference between the prices of oil here and at the international markets”.
“Europe has no foreign policy towards Belarus”
Europe will fail to democratize Belarus using dollars (or euros to be more exact). Actually, the problem is much deeper as Europe now has no foreign policy regarding Belarus.
Sergei Chaly: “Before the EU could impose certain conditions on countries, because there was a carrot hanging in front of the face like the membership in the European Union. Now the EU has accepted more than it can digest, so there is no such incentive.
I will stress again that the EU has no clear policy towards the countries that are not part of the EU or Russia. They do not belong to the European space neither economically, politically or culturally...
What else can they (EU) offer us? Is there is any solid program? “Eastern Partnership”... It was designed to offer at least something on the one hand and to keep us at a distance on the other hand. But this distance is reachable.
But this is not so much a serious incentive for our authorities to refrain themselves. Moreover, sanctions can be a stymulus, either. Is it for the first time?”
Judging by the statements of European officials, Europe is well aware that it cannot put pressure or demand anything from Belarus. On the other hand, the issue of Belarus has been for decades and no generation of European diplomats can resolve this issue. Sanctions or proposals are of no help. Why?
Sergei Chaly: “The EU has no own policy in general. Remember when Donald Ramsfield was asked at a news conference what his view on Europe's common position over Iraq was, he asked to give him the phone number where he can learn Europe's common position. But this is not the most important thing.
Europe's main interest is that the undisrupted supplies of gas and oil are guaranteed. But Europe makes contracts with Russia. It means that Europe buys gas in Russia, but it has to be supplied for example to the border between Ukraine and Poland. It means that as soon as the issue of transit arrises, Europe puts claims to Russia!
In this situation, there can be no own policy towards transit countries! Europe automatically give them up into the zone of Russia's influence”.
Opportunities for transit countries
Sergei Chaly: “The most important thing is that sooner or later the logic of transit countries will prevail, because we are now tackling not only the issue of economic survival. We are kind of faced with the question to sell ourselves to who -- to the left or to the right. What about ourselves? Cant we do anything ourselves?”
In order to sell ourselves, we have to be bought by someone? Who needs us like this?
Sergei Chaly: “Firstly, apart from few companies, Russia does not need us. Moreover, Kremlin's behavior shows that there can be no allies for Russia presently. All those claims so that we should recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia... Why do they think that this recognition should have been taken place automatically?
Equally, the EU does not need us either. All they need is to decorate themselves with a medal, saying they have finally resolved the Belarus issue! The guarantees of transit are all they need. But this issue is taken care of by Russia! If Europe wants to influence on the situation in Belarus, it has to negotiate with Russia so that the latter should deal with the democratization of our country. But Russia will not be doing it!”
