There's personnel crisis in Belarus. How bad is it?

Companies are forced to raise wages due to the lack of personnel - to keep the remaining workers or to attract new ones at more attractive rates. Those who have stayed to work in Belarus have more money in their hands. But they often have to work more to "cover" the wages of their colleagues who left.

"Rising wages stimulate the growth of consumption, including imports. And as a result, in the first quarter of 2024 there was a negative balance of goods and services, which creates great risks in foreign trade and risks regarding the balance in the foreign exchange market, and this is already fraught with devaluation".

According to the economist, the shortage of personnel should have had a strong impact on prices, but due to the same strict regulation they are not growing. And this threatens either an increase in the inflationary overhang or a shortage of certain goods. 

Fewer people can work

The number of people employed in the Belarusian economy has been steadily decreasing in recent years.

"This is bad, of course, because there are simply fewer people in the country who can work," Luzgina continues. "Even Belarusian officials recognize the problem, but they have not yet been able to reverse the trend".

The expert explains that the increase in the number of vacancies is due to the demographic situation and the departure of specialists from Belarus.

"Most likely, the trend will continue, but at a slower pace than before. Despite the fact that the authorities are trying to solve the problem by attracting foreigners and compulsory distribution of university graduates, the situation is not changing for the better".