Yuval Noah Harari: Putin will leave a legacy of hatred for generations

"It is not the fault of the populations. This war is the fault of Putin and Lukashenko", says the world-famous historian and author Yuval Noah Harari. In an interview for Euroradio, he also talks about the legacy that Putin will leave to Russians, about the future of the post-Soviet countries. He advises on how people can resist war in authoritarian regimes.

"Everyone is talking about Putin trying to conquer Ukraine, and forgetting that he has already conquered Belarus"

Euroradio: Russians and Ukrainians fought together against Nazi Germany. Today, Russia has attacked Ukraine. As a result, western countries adopt one package of sanctions after another. What legacy is Putin leaving to the Russians?

Yuval Noah Harari: Russians and Ukrainians were like family. Putin is turning them into bitter enemies. The basic reason for this whole war is that Putin built a fantasy in his head, that Ukraine doesn’t really exist, that Ukrainians are just Russians, that they want to be absorbed into Russia, and that only a small gang of Nazis prevents it. 

Because of this fantasy, Putin thought that the moment he invades Ukraine, Zelensky would run away, the Ukrainian army would surrender, the population would throw flowers on the Russian tanks, and Ukraine will again be part of Russia. 

Putin was completely wrong about everything. Ukraine is a very real and courageous nation. Zelensky didn’t flee. The Ukrainian army is fighting like lions. And the Ukrainian people are throwing Molotov cocktails on the Russian tanks, not flowers. 

Dark days may still come. Putin may still conquer much of the country. But he won’t be able to hold it and absorb it into Russia. This was his aim – and he won’t achieve it. He has already lost the war. If the war doesn’t stop immediately, Putin will leave a legacy of hatred that will last for generations.

Euroradio: What consequences will the war in Ukraine have on the other countries of the post-Soviet space, which Russia also considers its zones of influence?

Yuval Noah Harari: If Putin wins, most post-Soviets countries will lose their independence and be incorporated into a new Russian Empire. This has already happened to Belarus. Everyone is talking about Putin trying to conquer Ukraine, and forgetting that he has already conquered Belarus. 

But if Putin loses, this is likely to liberate not just Ukraine, but also Belarus, Kazakhstan and even Russia itself from Putin’s grip. So the Ukrainians are actually fighting for the freedom of the Belarussians and Russians too. 

"If Putin’s aggression is allowed to win, it will lead to a dark era of war and dictatorship all over the world"

Euroradio: Will the world as a whole become less tolerant of dictators and autocracies?

Yuval Noah Harari: It depends on the outcome of the war. If Putin’s aggression is allowed to win, it will lead to a dark era of war and dictatorship all over the world. In recent decades we have enjoyed the most peaceful era in human history. This era of peace was reflected most clearly not in poetic fantasies, but in government budgets. In recent decades governments around the world have felt safe enough to spend an average of only 6.5% of their budgets on their armed forces, while spending far more on education, healthcare and welfare. Among EU members, the average spending on defense has been under 3%. That has been an astonishing achievement.

For thousands of years, kings, emperors and sultans spent most of their budgets on their armies, while spending almost nothing on education or medical help for the masses. If anyone tried to object, they sent their army to arrest or kill them. Putin behaves like the old kings. He has built his war machine by spending 20% of his budget on the Russian military while neglecting government services for citizens. The enormous resources of Russia were used to build tanks instead of hospitals. 

If Putin wins in Ukraine, rulers all over the world will imitate him. They too would start building large armies and waging wars, instead of investing in healthcare and education for their citizens. Democracies too would be forced to increase their military budgets to defend themselves. We already saw Germany, for example, doubling its defense budget overnight. The money that should go to teachers, nurses and social workers would instead go to tanks, missiles and cyber weapons.

On the other hand, if Putin loses, it will safeguard peace and democracy. Governments all over the world will learn the lesson that violence doesn’t pay. They will invest in hospitals and teachers rather than in tanks and soldiers.

Euroradio: Is it a watershed moment for Europe and the world? Or is it a temporary manifestation of dissatisfaction with Russia's actions?

Yuval Noah Harari: Putin is endangering the whole world. If he wins, not only will it lead to a dark era of war and dictatorship. It will also ruin global cooperation on the common problems of humanity. It isn’t easy to work alongside countries that are preparing to eliminate you. If Putin wins, it would probably lead to an arms race in artificial intelligence, and to a collapse of global efforts to prevent climate change.

The Europeans and many other people around the world understand this. Putin thought that by invading Ukraine he will frighten and divide the Europeans. Instead, he has united Europe. The Europeans have reacted more quickly, forcefully and unanimously than anyone imagined. Even countries outside NATO – like Finland and Sweden – are sending weapons to Ukraine and blocking their airspace to Russia. 

And if Europe stays united, it has nothing to fear. The Russian economy is smaller than that of Italy or South Korea. Russia’s GDP is 1.5 trillion dollars. Italy’s is 1.9 trillion. Europe’s combined GDP is about 20 trillion. If Europe stands united, it doesn’t need to fear anyone.

"Don’t repeat government propaganda. Tell the truth"

Euroradio: Our Ukrainian neighbors call for Russians and Belarusians to stop the war by actively protesting on the streets. Some people get over their fear, go to protest on the street, and get arrested. What do you think of collective guilt? How justified is it to lay the blame for a war on populations that live in authoritarian countries?

Yuval Noah Harari: It is not the fault of the populations. This war is the fault of Putin and Lukashenko. I never lived under an authoritarian regime, and I cannot advise people to risk their lives by demonstrating in the streets. But Russians and Belarussians are smart. If they want, they can find ways to resist.

The Russian supply lines are long, and they depend on the work of Russian and Belarussian civilians. So slow down work. Make more mistakes. Accidentally lose government parcels. Insist on following precisely all the bureaucratic regulations and safety procedures. Insist on filling every form and getting every signature. And don’t repeat government propaganda. Tell the truth.